영국 상원에서 영국의 싱크탱크인 RUSI의 연구원 선생을 초청했는데, 전투기의 트렌드에서 유럽의 차기 전투기 프로젝트(GCAP와 FCAS)는 쩌리 신세일 것임을 솔직하게 밝혔습니다.

Professor Justin Bronk: Good morning. I am the senior research fellow for air power at the think tank RUSI. The sixth-generation ambitions, or moniker, for the Tempest programme—the GCAP—are, in essence, in the same category of marketing gimmick as the fifth generation, in the sense that what they actually mean is a new generation of manufacturing UK combat air platforms, following on from Typhoon. Most of what is being discussed would be relatively advanced and indigenously produced, along with Japan and Italy: a stealthy aeroplane with some sensor fusion features, a relatively long range, a degree of modularity, and a low probability of intercept and detection radar. That puts it fairly closely matched to American fifth-generation capabilities so I suggest that, in essence, what is being discussed is producing something that has never been produced successfully in the West—that is, in western countries—outside of America.

 6세대 GCAP라고 해봤자, 미국의 5세대에 가까울 것이다. 미국이 아닌 서방권에서 수출되는 F-35 같은 것??? (F-22는 수출이 안되니까요)

Outside of that, for most of the world, the sixth generation will probably be defined by whatever America does to replace the F-22 and whatever the Chinese do to follow on from the J-20, since superpowers tend to have the resources and technological maturity to define the bleeding edge.

6세대 전투기의 구체적인 모습은, 미국이 무엇으로 F-22를 대체하냐와 중국이 무엇으로 J-20을 대체하냐로 결정될 것(=이미 유럽은 쩌리임...).

Germany, generally speaking, first approaches these things through an industrial lens, then a political lens and maybe, eventually, a capability one. France almost flips that. That leaves Germany with the ill-defined next-generation weapon system bit, which in essence are collaborative combat aircraft elements, so uncrewed things that will fly alongside the fighter. Germany is likely to have significant political problems in being able to produce and design things that have lethal effect and the required degree of autonomy, given that it took more than 12 years to get the Bundestag to agree to put weapons on a remotely piloted UAV. 

원격조종되는 무인기가 무장 운용하는 일이 독일 의회에서는 12년 동안이나 논란거리였다: 그렇다면 FCAS에서 필수요소로 여겨지는, 보다 높은 자율성을 가진 협력형 무인기는 얼마나 논란거리가 될까? = 사업을 지연시키거나, 프랑스가 빡쳐서 컨소시엄 깨거나......?

There is a range of Turkish-South Korean supposedly fifth-generation programmes on the market. I saw a fantastic description of what are currently “fifth-generation-shaped” fighter prototypes. I would caution both them and us, when looking at demonstrators. Look at the gaps from flying prototypes to front-line fighters. For example, from the X-35 to the F-35 was about 12 or 13 years; the YF-22 to the F-22 was again about a decade; and the EAP to Typhoon was similar. 

It is extremely difficult to go from demonstrator to functional fighter, especially for anything stealthy. It has not only to be difficult to spot on radar but to do everything that the aircraft needs to do, including with sensors and sending and receiving electromagnetic information and energy, without giving yourself away—all while packaging everything with the power and cooling required, inside a clean design that means that you cannot have things like air scoops, which would normally be used to get cooling air in. There is a reason why only the Americans have ever done this properly in production quantities. The Chinese are, if not there, definitely very close to being there. Arguably, they are already there. The UK has done this in prototypes—BAE Systems Taranis, for example, is very impressive—but the move from that to a functioning combat aircraft in production at scale is a very big one.

1. (한국이나 튀르키예)5세대 전투기 새로 나온다는 거요? 양산될 때 얘기합시다.

2. 신호를 억제하면서도 센서가 잘 작동해야 하는 스텔스기는, 양산형 구현이 더욱 힘들다.

3. 지금 스텔스 혹은 그에 가까운 것을 양산하는/할 수 있는 나라는 미국과 중국뿐...